Lukas F. Stoetzer bio photo

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Immigration and support for redistribution: survey experiments in three European countries

16 July 2017 Publication, West European Politics

In times of increasing globalization scholars put considerable effort into understanding the consequences of immigration for the welfare state. One important factor in this respect is public support for the welfare state and redistribution. This article presents results from a unique survey experiment and a panel study in three European countries (Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands) to examine whether and how individuals change their preference for redistribution when faced with immigration... Read more

A Dynamic Forecasting Model for the 2017 German Federal Election

10 May 2017 Website,

Together with Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg I designed a website that publishes forecast for the German Federal Election of 2017. Our model combines historical information about German elections with current Poll data. Our aim is to accompany the campaign for the 2017 Bundestag election with scientifically sound forecasts. You will find the website here: [] Read more

A matter of representation: Spatial voting with inconsistent policy preferences

2 February 2017 Publication, British Journal of Political Science

The application of spatial voting theories to popular elections presupposes an electorate that chooses political representatives on the basis of their well- structured policy preferences. Behavioral researchers have long contended that parts of the electorate rather hold unstructured and inconsistent policy beliefs. In this article, I propose an extension to spatial voting theories to analyze the effect of varying consistency in policy preferences on electoral behavior. The model results in t... Read more

Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior

1 December 2016 Publication, Journal of Politics

Democratic accountability is characterized as weak in political systems where voters do not get to choose their government directly. We argue that coalition signals about desirable and undesirable coalitions that might be formed after the election help to provide this essential aspect of democratic government. We propose a simple model that identifies the effect of coalition signals on individual vote decisions. Based on survey experiments in two different countries we show how coalition sign... Read more