Lukas F. Stoetzer bio photo

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Forecasting Elections in Multi-Party Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals

31 August 2018 Accepted Publication, Political Analysis

We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multi-party elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parliament. We present results from two exante fo... Read more


Attitudes towards highly skilled and low-skilled immigration in Europe: A survey experiment in 15 European countries

31 January 2018 Publication, European Journal of Political Research

To what extent do economic concerns drive anti-migrant attitudes? Key theoretical arguments extract two central motives: increased labour market competition and the fiscal burden linked to the influx of migrants. This article provides new evidence regarding the impact of material self-interest on attitudes towards immigrants. It reports the results of a survey experiment embedded in representative surveys in 15 European countries before and after the European refugee crisis in 2014. As antici... Read more


Immigration and support for redistribution: survey experiments in three European countries

16 July 2017 Publication, West European Politics

In times of increasing globalization scholars put considerable effort into understanding the consequences of immigration for the welfare state. One important factor in this respect is public support for the welfare state and redistribution. This article presents results from a unique survey experiment and a panel study in three European countries (Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands) to examine whether and how individuals change their preference for redistribution when faced with immigration... Read more


A Dynamic Forecasting Model for the 2017 German Federal Election

10 May 2017 Website, zweitstimme.org

Together with Thomas Gschwend, Simon Munzert, Marcel Neunhoeffer and Sebastian Sternberg I designed a website that publishes forecast for the German Federal Election of 2017. Our model combines historical information about German elections with current Poll data. Our aim is to accompany the campaign for the 2017 Bundestag election with scientifically sound forecasts. You will find the website here: [zweitstimme.org] Read more