Lukas F. Stoetzer bio photo

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Vote Choice and the (Non)-Separability of Economic and Social Issues

15 October 2019 Accepted for Publication Public Opinion Quarterly

How voters use political issues to elect political candidates is of central importance to our understanding of democratic representation. Research on voting behavior often assumes that American voters hold distinct economic and cultural issue preferences. In this research note, we point out that this does not necessarily imply that preferences for candidates’ positions on the two issue dimensions are also additively separable in voters’ decisions. Analyzing survey data on U.S. presidential el... Read more

The two faces of party ambiguity: A comprehensive model of ambiguous party perceptions

1 October 2019 Accepted for Publication British Journal of Political Science

Recent research on electoral behavior has suggested that policy-informed vote choices are frequently obstructed by uncertainty about party positions. Given the significance of clear and distinct party platforms for meaningful epresentation, several studies have investigated the conditions under which parties are perceived as ambiguous. Yet, previous studies have often relied on measures of perceived positional ambiguity that are fairly remote from the concept, casting doubt on their substanti... Read more

Estimating Coalition Majorities during Political Campaigns based on Pre-election Polls

2 April 2019 Publication, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

In multi-party systems, politicians, voters, and political pundits often speculate about potential coalition governments based on current poll results. Their interest particularly centers around the question whether a specific coalition has enough public support to form a parliamentary majority. In this research note, we present a Bayesian Dynamic Multinomial-Dirichlet model to estimate the probability that a coalition will find enough public support to form a parliamentary majority. An appli... Read more

Election fraud, digit tests and how humans fabricate vote counts - An experimental approach

22 December 2018 Accepted Publication, Electoral Studies

The Last Digit test is a notable method to detect election fraud. It is based on an assumption that a manipulator replaces the vote counts of an election result sheet with man-made numbers, but will fail to make the numbers look random. Allegations of election fraud are based on this mechanism, but the strategic behaviour of humans when manipulating election results could make it difficult to detect fraudulent activities. This paper is the first to use a laboratory experiment to evaluate the ... Read more

Forecasting Elections in Multi-Party Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals

31 August 2018 Accepted Publication, Political Analysis

We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multi-party elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parliament. We present results from two exante fo... Read more