Lukas F. Stoetzer bio photo

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior

1 December 2016 Publication, Journal of Politics

Democratic accountability is characterized as weak in political systems where voters do not get to choose their government directly. We argue that coalition signals about desirable and undesirable coalitions that might be formed after the election help to provide this essential aspect of democratic government. We propose a simple model that identifies the effect of coalition signals on individual vote decisions. Based on survey experiments in two different countries we show how coalition sign... Read more


What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting

18 October 2016 Publication, Electoral Studies

Rental voting is a coalition voting strategy, by which supporters of a senior coalition partner cast their vote for the prospective junior coalition partner to secure its representation in parliament and, hence, the formation of this coalition. We make transparent that previous research has only studied rental- voting in contexts, in which coalition signals were consistent with the rental-vote logic. Employing a qualitative identification strategy, we find evidence for rental voting only in t... Read more


Dynamic linear models for trial heat polls in multi-party elections

25 June 2016 Conference Presentation EPSA 2016, Brussels

In this paper, we assess the predictive quality of different dynamic Bayesian forecasting models suited for modeling the compositional data that results from trial heat polls in multi-party systems. In particular, we compare different spec- ifications of dynamic linear models (DLM) fitted on log-ratio transformed data. In addition to existing random walk models [Jackman, 2005, Linzer, 2013, Walther, 2015], the DLM framework allows for model specifications with local trends and covariance stru... Read more


Jointly scaling citizens and legislators. The issue of varying structures in ideology

23 June 2016 Conference Presentation EPSA 2016, Brussels

The representation of citizens and legislators in the same ideological space requires that both employ the same structure to guide their political atti- tudes. Public opinion research has long argued for a differentiation between the two groups. While previous research assumes that legislators closely align their attitudes along ideological dimensions, citizens are said to do so only to a varying degree. In this manuscript, I describe an item response model with group specific error variances... Read more


Spatial voting with inconsistent policy preferences

12 May 2016 Poster Presentation Behavioral Models of Politics Conference, Pittsburgh

The application of spatial voting theories to popular elections presupposes an electorate that chooses political representatives on the basis of their well- structured policy preferences. Behavioral researchers have long contended that parts of the electorate rather hold unstructured and inconsistent policy beliefs. In this article, I propose an extension to spatial voting theories to analyze the effect of varying consistency in policy preferences on electoral behavior. The model results in t... Read more