Lukas F. Stoetzer bio photo

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Estimating Coalition Majorities during Political Campaigns based on Pre-election Polls

2 April 2019 Publication, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

In multi-party systems, politicians, voters, and political pundits often speculate about potential coalition governments based on current poll results. Their interest particularly centers around the question whether a specific coalition has enough public support to form a parliamentary majority. In this research note, we present a Bayesian Dynamic Multinomial-Dirichlet model to estimate the probability that a coalition will find enough public support to form a parliamentary majority. An appli... Read more

Election fraud, digit tests and how humans fabricate vote counts - An experimental approach

22 December 2018 Accepted Publication, Electoral Studies

The Last Digit test is a notable method to detect election fraud. It is based on an assumption that a manipulator replaces the vote counts of an election result sheet with man-made numbers, but will fail to make the numbers look random. Allegations of election fraud are based on this mechanism, but the strategic behaviour of humans when manipulating election results could make it difficult to detect fraudulent activities. This paper is the first to use a laboratory experiment to evaluate the ... Read more

Forecasting Elections in Multi-Party Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals

31 August 2018 Accepted Publication, Political Analysis

We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multi-party elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parliament. We present results from two exante fo... Read more

Attitudes towards highly skilled and low-skilled immigration in Europe: A survey experiment in 15 European countries

31 January 2018 Publication, European Journal of Political Research

To what extent do economic concerns drive anti-migrant attitudes? Key theoretical arguments extract two central motives: increased labour market competition and the fiscal burden linked to the influx of migrants. This article provides new evidence regarding the impact of material self-interest on attitudes towards immigrants. It reports the results of a survey experiment embedded in representative surveys in 15 European countries before and after the European refugee crisis in 2014. As antici... Read more