Lukas F. Stoetzer bio photo

Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Dynamic linear models for trial heat polls in multi-party elections

25 June 2016 Conference Presentation EPSA 2016, Brussels

In this paper, we assess the predictive quality of different dynamic Bayesian forecasting models suited for modeling the compositional data that results from trial heat polls in multi-party systems. In particular, we compare different spec- ifications of dynamic linear models (DLM) fitted on log-ratio transformed data. In addition to existing random walk models [Jackman, 2005, Linzer, 2013, Walther, 2015], the DLM framework allows for model specifications with local trends and covariance stru... Read more


Jointly scaling citizens and legislators. The issue of varying structures in ideology

23 June 2016 Conference Presentation EPSA 2016, Brussels

The representation of citizens and legislators in the same ideological space requires that both employ the same structure to guide their political atti- tudes. Public opinion research has long argued for a differentiation between the two groups. While previous research assumes that legislators closely align their attitudes along ideological dimensions, citizens are said to do so only to a varying degree. In this manuscript, I describe an item response model with group specific error variances... Read more


Spatial voting with inconsistent policy preferences

12 May 2016 Poster Presentation Behavioral Models of Politics Conference, Pittsburgh

The application of spatial voting theories to popular elections presupposes an electorate that chooses political representatives on the basis of their well- structured policy preferences. Behavioral researchers have long contended that parts of the electorate rather hold unstructured and inconsistent policy beliefs. In this article, I propose an extension to spatial voting theories to analyze the effect of varying consistency in policy preferences on electoral behavior. The model results in t... Read more


When do Voters Take into Account Post-Election Bargaining Processes?

9 September 2015 Paper Presentation APSA, San Fransisco

Under what conditions are citizens able and willing to take into account post- election bargaining processes? In this article, we show that the ability of voters to cast rational decisions in multi-party contexts is conditional on distinct aspects of political sophistication and engagement. In our experimental design, we ask subjects to participate in several mock elections. Participants are asked to vote in such a way, that the final electoral outcome is as close as possible to their own ide... Read more


Multidimensional Spatial Voting with Non-separable Preferences

23 June 2015 Publication, Political Analysis

In most multidimensional spatial models, the systematic component of agent utility functions is specified as additive separable. We argue that this assumption is too restrictive, at least in the context of spatial voting in mass elections. Here, assuming separability would stipulate that voters do not care about how policy platforms combine positions on multiple policy dimensions. We present a statistical implementation of Davis, Hinich, and Ordeshook’s (1970) Weighted Euclidean Distance mode... Read more