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Lukas F. Stoetzer

Post-doc Political Science. Research on Political Behaviour and Political Methodology

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Recent Research Posts

Whose dimension is it anyway? Elite ideology and the exposed partisan public in the U.S.

6 May 2021 Publication Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

A multitude of political science research assumes that the same ideological dimension guides the interaction between citizens and elites. Public opinion research has repeatedly underlined that this assumption is unlikely to apply to the entire public. In this article, I test the expectation that the interplay between exposure to public debate information and partisan identities makes citizens align their preferences with the elite ideological dimension. I develop a joint scaling model for cit... Read more

Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys

1 February 2021 Publication Political Analysis

Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to c... Read more

Tracking and promoting the usage of a COVID-19 contact tracing app

30 January 2021 Publication Nature Human Behaviour

Digital contact tracing apps have been introduced globally as an instrument to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, privacy by design impedes both the evaluation of these tools and the deployment of evidence-based interventions to stimulate uptake. We combine an online panel survey with mobile tracking data to measure the actual usage of Germany’s official contact tracing app and reveal higher uptake rates among respondents with an increased risk of severe illness, but lower rates among those ... Read more

The effect of televised candidate debates on the support for political parties

30 November 2020 Publication Electoral Studies

During campaigns for legislative elections, a large portion of the general public follows televised debates between the front-running candidates. How can the candidates use the public interest in the debates to increase the support for their party? In this article, we argue that especially challenger candidates can improve the public perception of their valence qualities, such as personal integrity, leadership, and competence, and can - as a result - raise the support of their party. We expec... Read more

How Parties React to Voter Transitions

24 March 2020 Forthcoming Publication American Political Science Review

This letter investigates how voter transitions between parties affect parties’ policy positioning. While a growing literature investigates the role of election results as signals for parties’ policy adaption, it has mostly focused on vote changes of individ- ual parties. However, parties do not only know if they won or lost in an election, but have more detailed information on which parties they won votes from and which parties they lost votes to. We make two arguments about how voter transit... Read more